High cholesterol runs in my family. My cholesterol readings are usually above 290 mg/dL, and I’ve been “taking” a statin drug (Lipitor) for the past 5 years.
I don’t have precise data for how often I took my pill, but I recall good times when I faithfully took Lipitor almost every day, and bad times when I pretty much ignored my health. Altogether, I know I did poorly because at the end of 5 years, the number of empty refill bottles only add up 40% of expected pill-taking. That makes me wonder if it’s worth taking a statin drug at all! I have read articles that support alternate-day statin dosing (taking a pill once every other day), but I don’t know if those findings extend to taking a pill once a week (doubtful) – I’d have to check with my doctor on this one.
To get a better sense of what happened these past 5 years (and possibly predict my next 5 years on Lipitor) I simulated my pill-taking history based on 2 assumptions:
(1) Whatever I do in the past 30 days, whether I take my pill each day or not, will mostly determine whether I take my pill today; and ..
(2) Each day presents its own unique challenges and there may be circumstances that cause me to completely forget to take my pill, regardless of my intentions or pill-taking history.
The graph below is a moving average of simulated pill-taking across 30 days. Thankfully, it took only 11 simulation runs before I landed on this graph, which completely fits my recollection of the past 5 years on Lipitor. I started off weak (6 months), then I tried taking it seriously (6 months), then I fell into this patten of taking it whenever I cared (3 years), and I finally went back to consistent pill-taking in year 5 (the present year).
The strange part is that if you ask me how often I miss my pill, I’d confidently say 3 days out of 10, so about 30% of the time. That is a 70% consistency rate, which on the surface doesn’t sound too bad. And I used that consistency rate when creating the graph. But 70% consistency is not good enough! What the graph shows (and is obvious in hindsight) is that missing a pill here and there can lead to a pattern of rarely taking my pill, which can be hard to break out of.
Now, I might say I will consistently take my pill every day going forward, but who am I kidding. For all I know, the graph above represents my next 5 years on a statin drug, unless I do something different. Considering the side effects of prescriptions drugs, it probably doesn’t make sense to take a daily pill unless I achieve 80-90% consistency. And thinking of that, why not see how far I can get with diet & exercise?
The moral of the story is consistency. In my case, 70% consistency with pill-taking is not enough. When managing our own health outcomes, and for success in other areas of life, consistency is key. It’s natural to assume that a little bit of effort yields a small reward; like how taking a pill sporadically throughout the month (instead of daily) may slightly reduce my risk of heart disease. Maybe this is true. But often times, a little bit of effort that is applied inconsistently, yields nothing. Don’t fall into a pattern of pretending to safeguard your health outcomes (taking to myself here).
~ James
